On the conflict potential of geo engineering to influence weather and the climate. It is often seen as a Sustainability topic. However, the topic also has international conflict and political aspects to it.
This documentary by the German national broadcast corporation ARD discusses the opportunities, risks and conflict potential of solar geoengineering as a technology to change unfavorable weather or climate conditions. Unfortunately, the documentary is in German only. For English references, please view the academic article in English at the bottom of this article. View the ARD documentary link ![]()
Solar geoengineering, the technology to influence the weather and the climate, can be used to combat the negative effects of Climate Change. The technology can be applied locally (e.g. by impacting clouds) or even in the stratosphere or even in space, carrying potential global effects and risks. However, scientists warn that creating a more favorable situation in country or region A may significantly affect weather, precipitation, temperature, sun, daylight etcetera in other regions, even in other continents.
The Department of Future Analysis of the German Armed Forces ("Bundeswehr") has recognized a high potential of conflict between states, and between business, NGOs and the state as a result of uncoordinated geoengineering in its report "The Future of Geoengineering": Future_Topic_Geoengineering" (link
, also in German). The conflict potential lies in technology application causing harmful effects to those that were not involved in deciding when and where the technology is applied, to what ends and who decides about those endsmust be.
Both the documentary and the armed forces future analysis show a conflict potential in developing solar geoengineering. This scenario is especially likely in case the technological development is incentivized by governments and their related business ecosystems furthering the development through partly private initiatives. Such initiatives are likely to focus on economic opportunities, while leaving global risks and adverse impacts unattended. To contain the conflict potential is an arduous task, even times of a global multilateral approach to combatting climate change. It carries the risk of dual use products and industries becoming the private part of the military-industrial. However, the multilateralism that forged common approaches such as the Paris Accord on climate and the Sustainable Development Goals are no longer key commitments of ever more governments. In a geopolitically scattered and antagonistic playing field, geogengineering capabilities further harnass political power, where concern for impacts on others is a lesser concern. In a non-harmonious and non-multilateral scenario, militarization of space and of the aviation and aeronautics that serves it are easily triggered. And already ongoing. National security concerns take over. The geopolitical, meteorological and engineering perspectives leading to conflict potential and to militarization of the skies and space are discussed in the documentary and the study mentioned above
An analysis of this process in the English language is available in many sources, but here I want to mention the article "Geopolitical ecology of solar geoengineering: from a 'logic of multilateralism' to logics of militarization" by researcher Ken Surprise in the Journal of Political Ecology (link
). See also Militarization.
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